Archive for October, 2008

Slowed Sales Related to Housing

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

In a recent recent blog post titled, “I Repeat: It’s Not Just A “Wall Street Bailout”

Brian Sullivan of Fox Business reminded readers that the housing crisis is not an island to itself, and explained that there are a number of industries that all benefit from home transactions. Sageworks data agrees, and shows that industries related to home building and housing have all been adversely affected by the crisis.

When Sageworks, Inc.’s data was mined for those privately held industries with the slowest sales growth over the last 12 months, it confirmed that a number of housing related industries such as furniture stores, lumber wholesalers, and building materials companies now rank among industries reporting the slowest sales growth in the US over the last 12 months.

Those Industries listed in the top 10th percentile for the slowest sales growth over the last 12 months includes the following:

Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers

-8.01%

Lumber and Other Construction Materials Wholesalers

-7.05%

Sawmills and Wood Preservation

-6.84%

Activities Related to Credit Intermediation

-5.58%

Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing

-5.05%

Radio and Television Broadcasting

-2.26%

Building Material and Supplies Dealers

-1.84%

Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies

-1.48%

Insurance Carriers

-1.32%

Veneer, Plywood, and Wood Product Manufacturing

-1.04%

Furniture and Home Furnishings Merchant Wholesalers

-0.97%

Drycleaning and Laundry Services

-0.91%

Furniture Stores

-0.71%

Ship and Boat Building

-0.32%

Brian Sullivan also explained that consumer spending was 70% of the economy, and much of that was related to housing. Historically, the ability to borrow and spend has tracked closely with real estate prices. With that in mind, watch retail spending and especially the auto industry (see previous post), where the consumers ability to borrow is directly related to auto sales.

Bad times for GM and Ford trickle down to auto dealers and suppliers

Monday, October 20th, 2008
Last week the New York Times reported that J.D. Power & Associates cut its forecast for United States motor vehicle sales this year to 13.6 million vehicles, a 16 percent decline from last year’s total, and it said 2009 sales could fall as low as 13.2 million. This news resulted in a plummet in the stock prices of both GM & Ford. How are privately owned automobile dealerships faring in this current environment?

The state of these dealerships seems to be quite similar to that of the American auto manufacturing giants. An analysis of Sageworks data on private companies in the “auto dealers” and “other motor vehicle manufacturing” industries shows that over the last 12 months alone, both of these industries fall in the bottom 5% of all industries in the database by all 4 borrowing/debt ratios that are tracked. The metrics analyzed include debt service coverage, interest coverage, debt to EBITDA, and debt to equity. This indicates that the restricted borrowing environment resulting from the current credit crisis may have a particularly dire effect on the auto sales industries.

Not surprisingly, sales growth for automobile dealers has gone from 2.37% in 2007 to

-1.83% in 2008 thus far. According to Sageworks data on private companies, sales of auto dealerships have not experienced a decline since the data began being collected in 2000. Additionally, cash as percent of total assets has decreased from 8.53% in 2007 to 6.99% in 2008.

Motor vehicle parts and supplies wholesalers have also seen a huge sales decline since 2007. Sales grew at an average of 0.7% in 2007 and have declined at an average rate of 11% in 2008.

Advertising Spending May Be The First To Go

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

Companies such as newspapers, news websites and social networking sites dependent on advertising dollars to make money may see a particular slow down as businesses cut unnecessary expenditures for fear of continued economic woes.  Sageworks Database of private company activity shows a downward trend in advertising dollars spent as a percent of sales from 2007 to 2008 for automobile dealers, restaurants and retail clothing stores.

In light of this trend Brian Hamilton, CEO of Sageworks, remarked, “when companies feel threatened in an uncertain economic environment, they tend to cut discretionary expenses, one of which is advertising.  Unfortunately, this tends to further depress sales and profits, since good advertising efforts drive profits and sales.”

The downward trend in advertising which is presumably due to tightened spending by businesses is similar to the downward trend being felt by retail stores due to tightened discretionary spending by consumers (see “Small and Large Retail Businesses Feel the Downturn“).

See also: http://www.adotas.com/2008/09/report-display-down-6-year-over-year/ - On online advertising trends in 2008.